The Guards Counterattack
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 749 (196 on the archive and 553 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 367
Defender wins (German): 379
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2025-04-07 | Won |
| 1010 | 954 | 58% | 2025-02-20 | Won |
| 1013 | 943 | 60% | 2025-02-04 | Won |
| 1008 | 971 | 55% | 2024-11-03 | Lost |
| 1006 | 943 | 59% | 2024-07-19 | Lost |
| 979 | 943 | 55% | 2024-06-28 | Won |
| 979 | 943 | 55% | 2024-06-28 | Lost |
| 913 | 927 | 48% | 2024-06-02 | Won |
| 957 | 913 | 56% | 2023-12-30 | Lost |
| 1226 | 937 | 84% | 2023-12-16 | Won |
| 999 | 999 | 50% | 2023-11-25 | Lost |
| 991 | 1019 | 46% | 2023-11-02 | Lost |
| 1023 | 965 | 58% | 2023-10-06 | Won |
| 1037 | 1041 | 49% | 2023-09-07 | Won |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2023-09-06 | Won |
| 1192 | 1226 | 45% | 2023-08-17 | Lost |
| 964 | 981 | 48% | 2023-07-16 | Won |
| 981 | 1050 | 40% | 2023-05-14 | Lost |
| 1039 | 963 | 61% | 2023-04-23 | Won |
| 845 | 918 | 40% | 2023-03-31 | Lost |
| 941 | 1053 | 34% | 2023-01-07 | Won |
| 941 | 1053 | 34% | 2023-01-07 | Won |
| 1030 | 923 | 65% | 2022-12-07 | Lost |
| 1002 | 913 | 63% | 2022-10-14 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2022-07-17 | Lost |
| 932 | 913 | 53% | 2022-06-17 | Won |
| 1037 | 942 | 63% | 2022-05-09 | Won |
| 925 | 1018 | 37% | 2022-04-28 | Lost |
| 925 | 1018 | 37% | 2022-04-28 | Lost |
| 1037 | 959 | 61% | 2022-04-15 | Won |
| 978 | 913 | 59% | 2022-02-26 | Won |
| 1053 | 982 | 60% | 2022-02-01 | Won |
| 1027 | 1027 | 50% | 2022-01-25 | Lost |
| 1009 | 892 | 66% | 2021-12-23 | Won |
| 908 | 1037 | 32% | 2021-12-04 | Lost |
| 1195 | 1228 | 45% | 2021-11-03 | Won |
| 1010 | 1065 | 42% | 2021-10-08 | Lost |
| 982 | 975 | 51% | 2021-09-28 | Lost |
| 964 | 1009 | 44% | 2021-05-17 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1137 | 32% | 2021-05-10 | Lost |
| 868 | 971 | 36% | 2021-04-01 | Won |
| 971 | 1072 | 36% | 2021-03-09 | Lost |
| 976 | 943 | 55% | 2021-02-22 | Won |
| 913 | 994 | 39% | 2021-01-09 | Lost |
| 1076 | 924 | 71% | 2021-01-08 | Lost |
| 1053 | 941 | 66% | 2020-11-05 | Lost |
| 1053 | 941 | 66% | 2020-11-05 | Lost |
| 1009 | 993 | 52% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 1063 | 1050 | 52% | 2020-10-05 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1001 | 55% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
| 1026 | 1137 | 35% | 2020-07-18 | Lost |
| 1033 | 943 | 63% | 2020-07-10 | Won |
| 1052 | 1049 | 50% | 2020-06-20 | Won |
| 962 | 1209 | 19% | 2020-06-12 | Lost |
| 985 | 1195 | 23% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 929 | 1195 | 18% | 2020-05-21 | Won |
| 1084 | 1012 | 60% | 2020-04-11 | Won |
| 1223 | 1008 | 78% | 2020-04-03 | Lost |
| 943 | 1011 | 40% | 2020-02-15 | Lost |
| 943 | 1011 | 40% | 2020-02-15 | Lost |
| 943 | 1011 | 40% | 2020-02-15 | Lost |
| 913 | 989 | 39% | 2020-02-06 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1079 | 52% | 2020-01-11 | Lost |
| 1223 | 1166 | 58% | 2020-01-05 | Won |
| 928 | 913 | 52% | 2019-10-14 | Lost |
| 1001 | 1001 | 50% | 2019-10-10 | Lost |
| 914 | 941 | 46% | 2019-08-24 | Won |
| 1214 | 943 | 83% | 2019-07-02 | Won |
| 1171 | 1113 | 58% | 2019-07-02 | Won |
| 913 | 959 | 43% | 2019-06-26 | Won |
| 964 | 937 | 54% | 2019-04-13 | Lost |
| 989 | 913 | 61% | 2019-02-24 | Won |
| 913 | 1070 | 29% | 2019-01-10 | Won |
| 1084 | 1020 | 59% | 2018-11-11 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2018-08-01 | Won |
| 1015 | 913 | 64% | 2018-07-24 | Lost |
| 1037 | 934 | 64% | 2018-06-24 | Won |
| 1195 | 1035 | 72% | 2018-05-02 | Lost |
| 913 | 1001 | 38% | 2018-04-20 | Won |
| 982 | 1097 | 34% | 2018-04-19 | Won |
| 1226 | 1186 | 56% | 2018-04-11 | Won |
| 1063 | 1084 | 47% | 2018-02-10 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1208 | 29% | 2018-01-12 | Lost |
| 925 | 892 | 55% | 2018-01-01 | Won |
| 911 | 1037 | 33% | 2017-12-23 | Won |
| 1037 | 911 | 67% | 2017-12-21 | Won |
| 1195 | 1082 | 66% | 2017-11-21 | Won |
| 963 | 979 | 48% | 2017-10-18 | Won |
| 938 | 913 | 54% | 2017-10-15 | Lost |
| 962 | 913 | 57% | 2017-09-15 | Lost |
| 949 | 903 | 57% | 2017-05-27 | Won |
| 999 | 999 | 50% | 2017-02-24 | Won |
| 999 | 999 | 50% | 2017-02-24 | Won |
| 1012 | 1030 | 47% | 2017-02-10 | Won |
| 956 | 919 | 55% | 2016-12-27 | Won |
| 1084 | 913 | 73% | 2016-12-23 | Lost |
| 942 | 913 | 54% | 2016-12-22 | Lost |
| 1107 | 992 | 66% | 2016-12-07 | Won |
| 1183 | 1041 | 69% | 2016-12-06 | Won |
| 1195 | 1186 | 51% | 2016-11-18 | Won |
| 1186 | 1195 | 49% | 2016-11-12 | Lost |
| 847 | 845 | 50% | 2016-10-29 | Won |
| 1070 | 1006 | 59% | 2016-09-18 | Won |
| 987 | 1033 | 43% | 2016-09-10 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1278 | 23% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 931 | 1113 | 26% | 2016-01-17 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2015-12-15 | Won |
| 1113 | 1127 | 48% | 2015-12-03 | Lost |
| 986 | 931 | 58% | 2015-10-20 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1065 | 41% | 2015-10-01 | Won |
| 1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2015-09-24 | Won |
| 1127 | 1113 | 52% | 2015-08-20 | Lost |
| 1019 | 931 | 62% | 2015-08-10 | Won |
| 954 | 943 | 52% | 2015-07-21 | Lost |
| 1008 | 913 | 63% | 2015-05-31 | Lost |
| 935 | 1195 | 18% | 2015-05-21 | Lost |
| 1112 | 932 | 74% | 2015-03-25 | Lost |
| 1036 | 923 | 66% | 2015-03-14 | Won |
| 1023 | 945 | 61% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 1061 | 830 | 79% | 2015-03-06 | Won |
| 861 | 997 | 31% | 2015-03-06 | Lost |
| 908 | 1158 | 19% | 2015-01-18 | Lost |
| 1225 | 1228 | 50% | 2014-12-06 | Lost |
| 847 | 869 | 47% | 2014-12-03 | Lost |
| 926 | 1033 | 35% | 2014-08-02 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1125 | 52% | 2014-06-06 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1033 | 57% | 2014-04-26 | Lost |
| 987 | 861 | 67% | 2014-01-14 | Lost |
| 1195 | 1132 | 59% | 2013-12-22 | Lost |
| 1195 | 983 | 77% | 2013-10-22 | Won |
| 1055 | 1164 | 35% | 2013-09-01 | Lost |
| 1021 | 956 | 59% | 2013-07-21 | Lost |
| 1195 | 1073 | 67% | 2013-06-25 | Won |
| 1195 | 1038 | 71% | 2013-05-23 | Won |
| 1074 | 1039 | 55% | 2013-04-30 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1074 | 45% | 2013-04-23 | Lost |
| 1108 | 943 | 72% | 2013-02-28 | Won |
| 934 | 1016 | 38% | 2013-02-22 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1030 | 51% | 2012-11-05 | Tied |
| 1027 | 1030 | 50% | 2012-07-27 | Lost |
| 1010 | 866 | 70% | 2012-07-24 | Won |
| 1027 | 1030 | 50% | 2012-07-12 | Won |
| 1066 | 1015 | 57% | 2012-05-22 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2012-04-30 | Won |
| 1094 | 870 | 78% | 2011-12-21 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1137 | 48% | 2011-11-19 | Won |
| 1137 | 1125 | 52% | 2011-11-19 | Lost |
| 1010 | 985 | 54% | 2011-06-04 | Won |
| 1011 | 1011 | 50% | 2011-01-31 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1141 | 35% | 2010-09-11 | Won |
| 999 | 1033 | 45% | 2010-07-10 | Lost |
| 983 | 987 | 49% | 2010-03-05 | Won |
| 949 | 973 | 47% | 2010-02-05 | Won |
| 920 | 920 | 50% | 2009-12-05 | Lost |
| 1012 | 992 | 53% | 2009-11-03 | Lost |
| 1195 | 943 | 81% | 2009-10-28 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1006 | 52% | 2009-10-17 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1061 | 52% | 2009-09-13 | Won |
| 1023 | 989 | 55% | 2009-07-20 | Won |
| 1087 | 1053 | 55% | 2009-06-01 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1137 | 48% | 2009-04-10 | Won |
| 1028 | 1073 | 44% | 2009-02-24 | Lost |
| 866 | 1010 | 30% | 2009-02-07 | Won |
| 1018 | 920 | 64% | 2009-01-21 | Won |
| 992 | 943 | 57% | 2008-12-17 | Lost |
| 1016 | 959 | 58% | 2008-11-26 | Lost |
| 918 | 952 | 45% | 2008-08-22 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1158 | 40% | 2008-08-08 | Lost |
| 1259 | 1029 | 79% | 2008-08-01 | Tied |
| 984 | 1125 | 31% | 2008-06-10 | Won |
| 1088 | 1150 | 41% | 2008-03-03 | Won |
| 1033 | 958 | 61% | 2008-01-22 | Won |
| 1012 | 1006 | 51% | 2007-12-27 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1137 | 32% | 2007-10-02 | Won |
| 1117 | 1064 | 58% | 2007-07-31 | Lost |
| 957 | 1002 | 44% | 2006-11-25 | Won |
| 1037 | 1167 | 32% | 2006-10-28 | Won |
| 1009 | 935 | 60% | 2006-09-12 | Won |
| 1032 | 1063 | 46% | 2006-07-30 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-03-09 | Won |
| 1037 | 1186 | 30% | 2005-04-21 | Won |
| 1132 | 1228 | 37% | 2004-05-11 | Lost |
| 907 | 862 | 56% | 2004-02-26 | Won |
| 1098 | 978 | 67% | 2002-12-15 | Tied |
| 829 | 908 | 39% | 2002-03-23 | Lost |
| 908 | 829 | 61% | 2002-03-23 | Lost |
| 829 | 1014 | 26% | 2001-10-21 | Lost |
| 829 | 962 | 32% | 2001-07-21 | Won |
| 829 | 999 | 27% | 2001-07-21 | Won |
| 1044 | 1064 | 47% | 1999-12-05 | Won |
| 1037 | 1076 | 44% | 1998-06-19 | Won |
| 1096 | 1098 | 50% | 1998-04-16 | Lost |
| 967 | 1223 | 19% | 1994-07-16 | Lost |
| 967 | 1223 | 19% | 1994-07-16 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1065 | 41% | 1989-12-29 | Lost |
| 1105 | 953 | 71% | Won |
Attacking (94 wins) average ELOs: 1021.2 vs 1017.3 has a 50.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).