Bad Luck
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46
Attacker wins (German): 21
Defender wins (American): 25
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1016 | 1215 | 24% | 2025-01-08 | Lost |
| 971 | 1012 | 44% | 2024-11-25 | Lost |
| 1108 | 969 | 69% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 850 | 989 | 31% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 964 | 988 | 47% | 2022-11-28 | Won |
| 1252 | 1306 | 42% | 2021-07-25 | Lost |
| 780 | 1029 | 19% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1226 | 998 | 79% | 2020-09-08 | Won |
| 1083 | 950 | 68% | 2020-08-28 | Won |
| 1025 | 1131 | 35% | 2019-05-08 | Lost |
| 1027 | 992 | 55% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1133 | 1042 | 63% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1018 | 1216 | 24% | 2018-02-11 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1216 | 24% | 2018-02-11 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1198 | 53% | 2014-01-18 | Won |
| 1125 | 1092 | 55% | 2012-02-25 | Won |
| 1108 | 1096 | 52% | 2011-11-11 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1168 | 37% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 966 | 1108 | 31% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1040 | 946 | 63% | 2010-03-13 | Won |
| 1104 | 1016 | 62% | 2009-08-23 | Won |
| 1107 | 1137 | 46% | 2009-04-14 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1077 | 60% | 2008-03-01 | Won |
| 1022 | 1035 | 48% | 2008-01-27 | Won |
| 1127 | 1122 | 51% | 2008-01-27 | Lost |
| 1150 | 1231 | 39% | 2007-09-07 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1150 | 41% | 2007-09-07 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1434 | 17% | 2007-08-07 | Lost |
| 1025 | 992 | 55% | 2006-10-14 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1215 | 44% | 2006-06-23 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1025 | 56% | 2006-06-03 | Won |
| 1220 | 1342 | 33% | 2006-04-02 | Won |
| 987 | 1215 | 21% | 2005-10-23 | Won |
| 833 | 1113 | 17% | 2003-03-07 | Won |
| 1060 | 925 | 69% | 2002-05-03 | Won |
| 1342 | 978 | 89% | 2002-04-27 | Won |
| 954 | 1342 | 10% | 2002-02-02 | Lost |
| 1342 | 1022 | 86% | 2002-01-31 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1026 | 54% | 2002-01-01 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1099 | 37% | 2001-12-08 | Won |
| 753 | 1140 | 10% | 2001-08-10 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2001-08-08 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2001-08-07 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1006 | 55% | | Won |
| 1021 | 1039 | 47% | | Lost |
| 1039 | 964 | 61% | | Won |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1065.6 vs 1097.9 has a 45.37% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).