A Burnt Out Case
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 74 (17 on the archive and 57 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 42
Defender wins (German): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1037 | 1007 | 54% | 2025-11-19 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1078 | 40% | 2025-11-01 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1078 | 40% | 2025-11-01 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1165 | 28% | 2025-08-11 | Won |
| 1019 | 1096 | 39% | 2019-04-05 | Won |
| 947 | 1037 | 37% | 2018-07-04 | Won |
| 1059 | 1066 | 49% | 2017-07-04 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1059 | 51% | 2017-05-29 | Lost |
| 1012 | 982 | 54% | 2013-09-01 | Won |
| 960 | 1110 | 30% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1059 | 45% | 2011-05-07 | Won |
| 1165 | 1049 | 66% | 2007-05-22 | Won |
| 1135 | 1233 | 36% | 2006-05-03 | Lost |
| 953 | 1036 | 38% | 2002-10-18 | Lost |
| 1140 | 727 | 92% | 2002-02-26 | Won |
| 1110 | 1023 | 62% | 2001-11-07 | Lost |
| 953 | 1036 | 38% | | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1035 vs 1049.5 has a 47.92% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).