High Tide at Heiligenbeil
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 149 (18 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 85
Defender wins (German): 64
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1154 | 1107 | 57% | 2024-05-13 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1126 | 35% | 2023-10-14 | Won |
| 1032 | 1002 | 54% | 2017-03-12 | Lost |
| 939 | 969 | 46% | 2014-05-13 | Won |
| 1103 | 1022 | 61% | 2014-02-01 | Won |
| 1018 | 983 | 55% | 2012-07-18 | Lost |
| 931 | 1009 | 39% | 2010-09-18 | Lost |
| 977 | 1098 | 33% | 2008-04-04 | Lost |
| 966 | 962 | 51% | 2005-11-29 | Won |
| 1037 | 971 | 59% | 2005-09-25 | Won |
| 1046 | 1098 | 43% | 2005-04-30 | Lost |
| 913 | 1098 | 26% | 2003-04-25 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1098 | 44% | 2003-04-05 | Won |
| 934 | 986 | 43% | 2002-04-20 | Won |
| 1064 | 1092 | 46% | 2001-09-16 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1188 | 40% | 2001-05-05 | Lost |
| 1098 | 890 | 77% | 2000-12-02 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1030 | 55% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1026 vs 1040.5 has a 47.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).