Merzenhausen Zoo
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 198 (40 on the archive and 158 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / British): 88
Defender wins (German): 109
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 964 | 1098 | 32% | 2025-10-30 | | Lost |
| 1163 | 1064 | 64% | 2024-03-24 | | Lost |
| 780 | 949 | 27% | 2022-12-19 | | Lost |
| 1040 | 1112 | 40% | 2022-11-21 | | Lost |
| 1085 | 966 | 66% | 2022-10-10 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1171 | 57% | 2022-08-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1134 | 32% | 2022-06-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1119 | 34% | 2021-02-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1052 | 43% | 2020-10-30 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2020-07-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1050 | 43% | 2019-08-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1227 | 21% | 2018-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2018-01-01 | | Tied |
| 1146 | 970 | 73% | 2016-08-24 | | Won |
| 1132 | 1000 | 68% | 2015-03-15 | | Won |
| 951 | 891 | 59% | 2014-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2013-07-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2013-07-07 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 996 | 65% | 2013-01-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 905 | 63% | 2012-11-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1073 | 40% | 2011-07-17 | | Lost |
| 1231 | 1000 | 79% | 2011-04-29 | | Won |
| 1000 | 973 | 54% | 2010-11-01 | | Won |
| 1194 | 1022 | 73% | 2009-12-22 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 1000 | 80% | 2009-10-06 | | Won |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2009-05-23 | | Lost |
| 1435 | 1000 | 92% | 2007-03-01 | | Won |
| 1141 | 973 | 72% | 2003-11-07 | | Lost |
| 1152 | 832 | 86% | 2003-03-27 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2003-02-25 | | Lost |
| 1141 | 999 | 69% | 2001-10-06 | | Lost |
| 1152 | 1000 | 71% | 2000-12-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2000-09-24 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1009 | 87% | 2000-07-14 | | Won |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2000-07-11 | | Won |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2000-06-11 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2000-04-24 | | Won |
| 1050 | 1000 | 57% | 2000-03-26 | | Lost |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2000-03-06 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 1999-11-16 | | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1096.7 vs 1025.5 has a 60.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).