First Day of Diadem
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 81 (21 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 45
Defender wins (Free French): 36
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1025 | 1009 | 52% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1025 | 1009 | 52% | 2023-10-22 | Won |
| 1071 | 946 | 67% | 2020-07-31 | Won |
| 945 | 1072 | 32% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 840 | 809 | 54% | 2020-06-27 | Lost |
| 981 | 1030 | 43% | 2020-03-09 | Won |
| 1034 | 917 | 66% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1223 | 1103 | 67% | 2016-06-24 | Won |
| 1031 | 697 | 87% | 2011-03-12 | Won |
| 909 | 1022 | 34% | 2010-06-16 | Won |
| 1062 | 1048 | 52% | 2010-04-26 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1284 | 19% | 2006-10-23 | Lost |
| 1148 | 1030 | 66% | 2006-06-14 | Won |
| 964 | 1037 | 40% | 2003-11-30 | Won |
| 1046 | 1100 | 42% | 1999-05-28 | Won |
| 1033 | 1063 | 46% | 1998-10-01 | Won |
| 1138 | 856 | 84% | 1995-12-12 | Won |
| 1046 | 953 | 63% | 1995-08-01 | Won |
| 1042 | 1046 | 49% | 1995-07-21 | Lost |
| 1138 | 844 | 84% | | Won |
| 982 | 1138 | 29% | | Lost |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1034 vs 1000.6 has a 54.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).