The Crux of Calais
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (25 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 37
Defender wins (British): 26
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1135 | 1135 | 50% | 2024-12-24 | Lost |
| 993 | 1108 | 34% | 2023-05-19 | Won |
| 986 | 1028 | 44% | 2023-03-02 | Lost |
| 955 | 1092 | 31% | 2022-01-23 | Won |
| 1079 | 997 | 62% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1136 | 964 | 73% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 967 | 978 | 48% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1029 | 964 | 59% | 2021-10-19 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1216 | 26% | 2021-08-11 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1042 | 49% | 2021-08-10 | Lost |
| 1013 | 988 | 54% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1060 | 1063 | 50% | 2021-04-20 | Won |
| 1060 | 1060 | 50% | 2021-01-31 | Won |
| 1017 | 1025 | 49% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1227 | 1108 | 66% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 1108 | 948 | 72% | 2020-02-29 | Won |
| 1117 | 1079 | 55% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 982 | 1216 | 21% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1227 | 24% | 2014-11-11 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-12-18 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2013-10-26 | Lost |
| 1044 | 1077 | 45% | 2011-03-07 | Lost |
| 1146 | 881 | 82% | 2008-10-05 | Won |
| 1150 | 1219 | 40% | 2005-04-10 | Won |
| 984 | 965 | 53% | 1994-12-18 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1054.1 vs 1056.9 has a 49.59% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).