The Crux of Calais
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (25 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 37
Defender wins (British): 26
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1093 | 1093 | 50% | 2024-12-24 | Lost |
| 978 | 943 | 55% | 2023-05-19 | Won |
| 966 | 1014 | 43% | 2023-03-02 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1004 | 50% | 2022-01-23 | Won |
| 1053 | 938 | 66% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1133 | 964 | 73% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1084 | 1020 | 59% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1010 | 964 | 57% | 2021-10-19 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1219 | 26% | 2021-08-11 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1042 | 49% | 2021-08-10 | Lost |
| 1012 | 953 | 58% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2021-04-20 | Won |
| 1059 | 1037 | 53% | 2021-01-31 | Won |
| 1112 | 932 | 74% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1289 | 1033 | 81% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 943 | 954 | 48% | 2020-02-29 | Won |
| 1118 | 1195 | 39% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 982 | 1219 | 20% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1289 | 17% | 2014-11-11 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-12-18 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2013-10-26 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1012 | 60% | 2011-03-07 | Lost |
| 1149 | 882 | 82% | 2008-10-05 | Won |
| 977 | 1302 | 13% | 2005-04-10 | Won |
| 983 | 987 | 49% | 1994-12-18 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1048.4 vs 1043 has a 50.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).