The Crux of Calais
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (24 on the archive and 38 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 37
Defender wins (British): 25
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 948 | 948 | 50% | 2023-05-19 | Won |
| 937 | 1009 | 40% | 2023-03-02 | Lost |
| 938 | 1045 | 35% | 2022-01-23 | Won |
| 1112 | 920 | 75% | 2021-12-27 | Lost |
| 1184 | 964 | 78% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1058 | 1021 | 55% | 2021-11-19 | Won |
| 1019 | 964 | 58% | 2021-10-19 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1216 | 26% | 2021-08-11 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1042 | 49% | 2021-08-10 | Lost |
| 1012 | 955 | 58% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1062 | 1053 | 51% | 2021-04-20 | Won |
| 1042 | 1062 | 47% | 2021-01-31 | Won |
| 1002 | 1032 | 46% | 2020-11-16 | Lost |
| 1274 | 948 | 87% | 2020-11-11 | Won |
| 948 | 955 | 49% | 2020-02-29 | Won |
| 1111 | 1140 | 46% | 2018-10-26 | Lost |
| 981 | 1216 | 21% | 2015-08-31 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1274 | 19% | 2014-11-11 | Lost |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2013-12-18 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2013-10-26 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1063 | 53% | 2011-03-07 | Lost |
| 1149 | 882 | 82% | 2008-10-05 | Won |
| 976 | 1310 | 13% | 2005-04-10 | Won |
| 983 | 1018 | 45% | 1994-12-18 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1040.7 vs 1045 has a 49.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).