An Uncommon Occurrence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 123 (24 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 73
Defender wins (German): 48
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1055 | 955 | 64% | 2022-12-03 | Lost |
1015 | 997 | 53% | 2022-01-27 | Tied |
1138 | 969 | 73% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
983 | 983 | 50% | 2021-03-30 | Lost |
936 | 894 | 56% | 2021-02-08 | Lost |
1008 | 1008 | 50% | 2021-01-18 | Lost |
1050 | 984 | 59% | 2020-07-20 | Won |
978 | 977 | 50% | 2020-05-24 | Won |
857 | 1152 | 15% | 2019-02-23 | Won |
1034 | 1110 | 39% | 2018-12-21 | Won |
1249 | 962 | 84% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
1054 | 1110 | 42% | 2014-05-14 | Won |
1138 | 1224 | 38% | 2013-10-07 | Won |
977 | 939 | 55% | 2013-09-08 | Lost |
951 | 1006 | 42% | 2013-04-11 | Won |
1030 | 1035 | 49% | 2013-01-16 | Tied |
1151 | 1037 | 66% | 2011-10-01 | Lost |
1107 | 1125 | 47% | 2011-08-09 | Won |
1228 | 1180 | 57% | 2009-04-05 | Won |
928 | 1030 | 36% | 2006-01-01 | Lost |
1068 | 864 | 76% | 2004-10-17 | Won |
1062 | 1068 | 49% | 1999-07-05 | Won |
1087 | 872 | 78% | 1998-12-12 | Won |
1097 | 1227 | 32% | 1998-11-07 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1049.2 vs 1029.5 has a 52.83% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).