Strangers in a Strange Land
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 312 (55 on the archive and 257 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 165
Defender wins (German): 146
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 889 | 889 | 50% | 2024-11-17 | Lost |
| 837 | 851 | 48% | 2024-04-21 | Lost |
| 885 | 992 | 35% | 2022-08-31 | Won |
| 917 | 1148 | 21% | 2021-06-16 | Lost |
| 800 | 880 | 39% | 2020-10-05 | Won |
| 1045 | 1068 | 47% | 2020-09-08 | Lost |
| 970 | 1126 | 29% | 2020-08-12 | Won |
| 960 | 837 | 67% | 2020-08-03 | Tied |
| 1031 | 1013 | 53% | 2020-05-09 | Lost |
| 959 | 917 | 56% | 2020-03-15 | Lost |
| 1205 | 1077 | 68% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 1135 | 1056 | 61% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 1205 | 917 | 84% | 2020-03-05 | Won |
| 1009 | 1025 | 48% | 2020-02-28 | Won |
| 1082 | 1310 | 21% | 2018-09-05 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1020 | 50% | 2017-11-23 | Won |
| 897 | 914 | 48% | 2017-08-08 | Won |
| 1019 | 990 | 54% | 2017-05-13 | Won |
| 956 | 921 | 55% | 2017-03-21 | Won |
| 921 | 956 | 45% | 2017-03-04 | Lost |
| 1097 | 1216 | 34% | 2016-12-07 | Lost |
| 965 | 1181 | 22% | 2015-11-16 | Won |
| 1022 | 961 | 59% | 2015-06-14 | Won |
| 958 | 1244 | 16% | 2015-03-07 | Lost |
| 1037 | 998 | 56% | 2014-08-02 | Won |
| 1048 | 1161 | 34% | 2014-06-01 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1026 | 47% | 2014-03-04 | Won |
| 1005 | 1026 | 47% | 2014-03-04 | Won |
| 965 | 1184 | 22% | 2012-10-07 | Won |
| 981 | 996 | 48% | 2012-09-23 | Lost |
| 1091 | 983 | 65% | 2012-08-10 | Lost |
| 1209 | 954 | 81% | 2012-08-04 | Won |
| 1094 | 1094 | 50% | 2011-10-09 | Won |
| 950 | 1005 | 42% | 2010-01-21 | Lost |
| 1022 | 917 | 65% | 2009-11-27 | Won |
| 984 | 1022 | 45% | 2009-09-29 | Won |
| 992 | 917 | 61% | 2009-02-26 | Lost |
| 995 | 1228 | 21% | 2008-11-01 | Won |
| 1056 | 1100 | 44% | 2008-01-21 | Won |
| 1046 | 1060 | 48% | 2006-02-10 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1087 | 45% | 2004-09-19 | Lost |
| 931 | 994 | 41% | 2004-09-19 | Won |
| 1029 | 1055 | 46% | 2004-07-25 | Won |
| 1100 | 1046 | 58% | 2002-10-13 | Won |
| 983 | 829 | 71% | 2002-06-01 | Lost |
| 880 | 1063 | 26% | 2001-05-06 | Lost |
| 962 | 1138 | 27% | 2001-01-26 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1083 | 52% | 2000-08-26 | Won |
| 969 | 947 | 53% | 1999-12-27 | Lost |
| 866 | 1019 | 29% | 1999-01-23 | Lost |
| 1138 | 856 | 84% | 1995-11-08 | Won |
| 1046 | 919 | 68% | 1993-10-01 | Won |
| 1087 | 953 | 68% | 1993-08-07 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1160 | 47% | | Lost |
| 1138 | 1160 | 47% | | Lost |
Attacking (29 wins) average ELOs: 1012.4 vs 1027.1 has a 47.88% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).