Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 484 (63 on the archive and 421 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 250
Defender wins (American): 234
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1055 | 1043 | 52% | 2024-01-13 | Won |
1046 | 977 | 60% | 2022-01-14 | Won |
1018 | 1018 | 50% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
1018 | 1018 | 50% | 2021-12-29 | Lost |
1018 | 1018 | 50% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
979 | 977 | 50% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
969 | 1087 | 34% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
1094 | 1187 | 37% | 2021-02-06 | Lost |
961 | 1009 | 43% | 2020-12-29 | Won |
977 | 979 | 50% | 2020-12-27 | Lost |
1078 | 1009 | 60% | 2020-12-21 | Won |
1068 | 1055 | 52% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
1100 | 1055 | 56% | 2019-03-01 | Won |
1310 | 998 | 86% | 2019-01-29 | Lost |
949 | 906 | 56% | 2018-02-14 | Won |
1005 | 1050 | 44% | 2018-02-10 | Lost |
984 | 1050 | 41% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
985 | 986 | 50% | 2016-12-22 | Lost |
986 | 851 | 69% | 2016-11-13 | Won |
986 | 851 | 69% | 2016-11-13 | Won |
893 | 906 | 48% | 2016-10-14 | Won |
1144 | 1093 | 57% | 2016-08-01 | Lost |
1012 | 969 | 56% | 2016-03-29 | Won |
1183 | 1055 | 68% | 2016-03-14 | Won |
1049 | 1127 | 39% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
1018 | 959 | 58% | 2016-03-12 | Won |
938 | 1249 | 14% | 2015-09-21 | Lost |
849 | 1018 | 27% | 2015-06-27 | Won |
1055 | 1183 | 32% | 2015-06-23 | Won |
1107 | 1271 | 28% | 2015-05-04 | Won |
998 | 1024 | 46% | 2012-12-01 | Won |
998 | 1055 | 42% | 2012-12-01 | Lost |
901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
1067 | 917 | 70% | 2012-04-02 | Won |
817 | 1107 | 16% | 2012-01-25 | Lost |
945 | 976 | 46% | 2011-01-01 | Lost |
1197 | 1037 | 72% | 2010-12-04 | Won |
1055 | 969 | 62% | 2010-11-12 | Lost |
1069 | 1039 | 54% | 2010-03-12 | Lost |
1090 | 1035 | 58% | 2009-10-09 | Won |
913 | 1158 | 20% | 2009-09-13 | Lost |
1088 | 1158 | 40% | 2009-09-10 | Won |
1138 | 945 | 75% | 2009-07-09 | Lost |
1125 | 967 | 71% | 2009-06-08 | Won |
1097 | 1055 | 56% | 2008-06-15 | Lost |
1055 | 919 | 69% | 2008-04-18 | Won |
901 | 1010 | 35% | 2008-03-20 | Lost |
919 | 1055 | 31% | 2008-02-16 | Lost |
1015 | 1123 | 35% | 2007-11-18 | Won |
1138 | 890 | 81% | 2007-09-30 | Won |
1022 | 1307 | 16% | 2007-06-06 | Lost |
1397 | 1307 | 63% | 2007-06-06 | Lost |
999 | 862 | 69% | 2007-01-13 | Won |
1070 | 1044 | 54% | 2006-01-14 | Won |
1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2005-12-20 | Lost |
1135 | 1055 | 61% | 2004-11-19 | Won |
1086 | 1074 | 52% | 2004-10-31 | Lost |
929 | 992 | 41% | 2002-01-19 | Won |
920 | 1098 | 26% | 2000-04-29 | Won |
1000 | 1066 | 41% | 1999-11-30 | Lost |
944 | 1087 | 31% | 1997-12-25 | Won |
1001 | 1228 | 21% | 1996-11-15 | Won |
Attacking (37 wins) average ELOs: 1031.5 vs 1039.6 has a 48.84% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).