Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 500 (78 on the archive and 422 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 254
Defender wins (American): 246
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 933 | 1016 | 38% | 2025-12-13 | Lost |
| 952 | 952 | 50% | 2024-12-20 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1031 | 50% | 2024-01-13 | Won |
| 1159 | 1110 | 57% | 2023-05-01 | Won |
| 996 | 985 | 52% | 2022-01-14 | Won |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1022 | 1043 | 47% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1022 | 1043 | 47% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2021-12-29 | Lost |
| 1012 | 971 | 56% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
| 1012 | 971 | 56% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
| 1022 | 1043 | 47% | 2021-12-28 | Won |
| 891 | 959 | 40% | 2021-12-18 | Lost |
| 964 | 1030 | 41% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
| 1092 | 1228 | 31% | 2021-02-06 | Lost |
| 974 | 932 | 56% | 2020-12-29 | Won |
| 971 | 1012 | 44% | 2020-12-27 | Lost |
| 971 | 1012 | 44% | 2020-12-27 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1009 | 60% | 2020-12-21 | Won |
| 1116 | 1080 | 55% | 2019-03-01 | Won |
| 931 | 998 | 40% | 2019-01-29 | Lost |
| 948 | 904 | 56% | 2018-02-14 | Won |
| 1005 | 1043 | 45% | 2018-02-10 | Lost |
| 1099 | 943 | 71% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1088 | 987 | 64% | 2016-12-22 | Lost |
| 981 | 846 | 69% | 2016-11-13 | Won |
| 981 | 846 | 69% | 2016-11-13 | Won |
| 898 | 919 | 47% | 2016-10-14 | Won |
| 1144 | 1108 | 55% | 2016-08-01 | Lost |
| 988 | 964 | 53% | 2016-03-29 | Won |
| 1131 | 1031 | 64% | 2016-03-14 | Won |
| 1005 | 960 | 56% | 2016-03-12 | Won |
| 1042 | 1140 | 36% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 939 | 1236 | 15% | 2015-09-21 | Lost |
| 786 | 1005 | 22% | 2015-06-27 | Won |
| 1031 | 1131 | 36% | 2015-06-23 | Won |
| 1121 | 1007 | 66% | 2015-05-04 | Won |
| 987 | 1023 | 45% | 2012-12-01 | Won |
| 987 | 1031 | 44% | 2012-12-01 | Lost |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1071 | 917 | 71% | 2012-04-02 | Won |
| 1159 | 1121 | 55% | 2012-01-25 | Lost |
| 906 | 976 | 40% | 2011-01-01 | Lost |
| 1197 | 1036 | 72% | 2010-12-04 | Won |
| 1031 | 1128 | 36% | 2010-11-12 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1039 | 54% | 2010-03-12 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1171 | 40% | 2009-10-09 | Won |
| 906 | 1152 | 20% | 2009-09-13 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1152 | 41% | 2009-09-10 | Won |
| 1138 | 906 | 79% | 2009-07-09 | Lost |
| 1126 | 967 | 71% | 2009-06-08 | Won |
| 1159 | 1097 | 59% | 2008-06-15 | Lost |
| 1031 | 919 | 66% | 2008-04-18 | Won |
| 905 | 1012 | 35% | 2008-03-20 | Lost |
| 919 | 1031 | 34% | 2008-02-16 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1213 | 24% | 2007-11-18 | Won |
| 969 | 889 | 61% | 2007-09-30 | Won |
| 1430 | 1251 | 74% | 2007-06-06 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1251 | 25% | 2007-06-06 | Lost |
| 987 | 862 | 67% | 2007-01-13 | Won |
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2006-09-21 | Won |
| 1069 | 1056 | 52% | 2006-01-14 | Won |
| 1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2005-12-20 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1118 | 45% | 2004-10-31 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1156 | 50% | 2004-08-12 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1220 | 39% | 2004-05-16 | Won |
| 929 | 982 | 42% | 2002-01-19 | Won |
| 1342 | 1021 | 86% | 2001-08-28 | Won |
| 924 | 1101 | 27% | 2000-04-29 | Won |
| 1018 | 1161 | 31% | 1999-11-30 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1263 | 30% | 1999-04-30 | Won |
| 1290 | 1263 | 54% | 1999-04-26 | Won |
| 919 | 1342 | 8% | 1998-06-28 | Lost |
| 940 | 1030 | 37% | 1997-12-25 | Won |
| 999 | 1233 | 21% | 1996-11-15 | Won |
| 911 | 1159 | 19% | 1993-03-12 | Won |
Attacking (45 wins) average ELOs: 1030.7 vs 1047.2 has a 47.62% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).