The Citadel
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 240 (42 on the archive and 198 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 102
Defender wins (Russian): 138
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 978 | 860 | 66% | 2025-03-15 | Won |
| 929 | 1195 | 18% | 2025-01-30 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2024-01-14 | Won |
| 940 | 927 | 52% | 2022-02-13 | Lost |
| 927 | 940 | 48% | 2022-01-26 | Won |
| 1073 | 1093 | 47% | 2021-08-01 | Won |
| 860 | 1010 | 30% | 2020-08-28 | Lost |
| 877 | 860 | 52% | 2019-01-10 | Lost |
| 883 | 974 | 37% | 2018-11-02 | Lost |
| 1001 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 1001 | 1020 | 47% | 2018-07-13 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1029 | 54% | 2018-05-30 | Won |
| 927 | 1009 | 38% | 2018-02-19 | Lost |
| 1093 | 951 | 69% | 2017-10-20 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1203 | 25% | 2017-10-09 | Lost |
| 1195 | 951 | 80% | 2017-09-23 | Won |
| 1009 | 1011 | 50% | 2017-07-08 | Lost |
| 958 | 1009 | 43% | 2017-06-30 | Won |
| 1135 | 896 | 80% | 2016-10-21 | Won |
| 960 | 1203 | 20% | 2016-06-25 | Lost |
| 1203 | 1009 | 75% | 2014-09-01 | Lost |
| 951 | 1195 | 20% | 2014-07-20 | Lost |
| 860 | 973 | 34% | 2014-06-06 | Won |
| 944 | 1093 | 30% | 2013-04-29 | Won |
| 951 | 919 | 55% | 2012-11-19 | Won |
| 1066 | 1053 | 52% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
| 860 | 954 | 37% | 2012-09-01 | Won |
| 1149 | 983 | 72% | 2012-07-16 | Lost |
| 966 | 853 | 66% | 2012-01-30 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1018 | 49% | 2008-12-27 | Won |
| 1285 | 1405 | 33% | 2008-02-10 | Lost |
| 920 | 1000 | 39% | 2007-12-01 | Lost |
| 1009 | 958 | 57% | 2007-02-17 | Won |
| 832 | 832 | 50% | 2006-06-22 | Won |
| 1004 | 1002 | 50% | 2005-01-12 | Won |
| 1066 | 986 | 61% | 2004-10-10 | Won |
| 1161 | 1147 | 52% | 2004-08-21 | Won |
| 1062 | 1080 | 47% | 2002-03-29 | Lost |
| 940 | 1024 | 38% | 1998-01-25 | Won |
| 1205 | 881 | 87% | 1994-04-30 | Lost |
| 1011 | 983 | 54% | 1992-05-05 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1000 | 65% | | Lost |
Attacking (20 wins) average ELOs: 1012.5 vs 1015.7 has a 49.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).