To the Square
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 129 (22 on the archive and 107 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 71
Defender wins (German): 58
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1141 | 1167 | 46% | 2025-03-15 | Lost |
| 939 | 909 | 54% | 2021-12-13 | Won |
| 1054 | 941 | 66% | 2021-01-26 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1039 | 68% | 2020-01-12 | Won |
| 976 | 1114 | 31% | 2019-07-29 | Won |
| 1051 | 993 | 58% | 2018-12-06 | Won |
| 909 | 956 | 43% | 2018-02-15 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1106 | 56% | 2014-12-28 | Won |
| 1093 | 944 | 70% | 2012-12-20 | Lost |
| 1156 | 1175 | 47% | 2011-09-20 | Lost |
| 998 | 1013 | 48% | 2011-09-14 | Lost |
| 866 | 1010 | 30% | 2011-03-05 | Won |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2010-05-14 | Won |
| 959 | 956 | 50% | 2009-08-06 | Won |
| 1060 | 1089 | 46% | 2006-10-27 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1029 | 54% | 2005-11-26 | Won |
| 1082 | 948 | 68% | 2005-01-02 | Won |
| 614 | 1100 | 6% | 2002-06-22 | Won |
| 1100 | 890 | 77% | 2001-06-02 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1137 | 37% | 1998-01-17 | Lost |
| 1202 | 911 | 84% | 1994-03-09 | Lost |
| 984 | 1002 | 47% | 1992-04-29 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1030.9 vs 1019.5 has a 51.64% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).