The Czerniakow Bridgehead
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 281 (56 on the archive and 225 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 132
Defender wins (Russian/Partisan (AK)): 148
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 948 | 879 | 60% | 2025-03-21 | Won |
| 979 | 948 | 54% | 2024-06-28 | Won |
| 998 | 908 | 63% | 2024-01-28 | Lost |
| 864 | 1050 | 26% | 2022-01-22 | Won |
| 1017 | 1214 | 24% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
| 1118 | 1214 | 37% | 2021-07-19 | Lost |
| 927 | 940 | 48% | 2021-04-03 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1173 | 31% | 2019-12-26 | Won |
| 1058 | 949 | 65% | 2018-12-22 | Won |
| 1058 | 949 | 65% | 2018-12-22 | Won |
| 1073 | 1106 | 45% | 2018-06-21 | Won |
| 927 | 970 | 44% | 2018-02-03 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2018-01-24 | Lost |
| 1112 | 932 | 74% | 2017-05-30 | Won |
| 1024 | 1084 | 41% | 2017-05-13 | Won |
| 1195 | 893 | 85% | 2017-04-13 | Won |
| 1061 | 1106 | 44% | 2016-11-19 | Won |
| 877 | 948 | 40% | 2016-10-02 | Lost |
| 877 | 948 | 40% | 2016-09-30 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1025 | 68% | 2016-08-10 | Lost |
| 1203 | 1040 | 72% | 2016-05-07 | Lost |
| 1134 | 948 | 74% | 2015-01-15 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1010 | 54% | 2014-10-22 | Won |
| 1228 | 1089 | 69% | 2014-02-07 | Lost |
| 1040 | 925 | 66% | 2014-01-11 | Won |
| 1061 | 1055 | 51% | 2013-11-12 | Lost |
| 1195 | 1073 | 67% | 2013-07-21 | Won |
| 1073 | 1195 | 33% | 2013-07-15 | Lost |
| 1010 | 948 | 59% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
| 1010 | 948 | 59% | 2013-02-24 | Lost |
| 900 | 1164 | 18% | 2013-01-26 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1158 | 31% | 2012-11-01 | Won |
| 948 | 973 | 46% | 2012-09-30 | Won |
| 962 | 951 | 52% | 2011-10-14 | Won |
| 976 | 976 | 50% | 2011-09-26 | Lost |
| 881 | 962 | 39% | 2011-08-21 | Lost |
| 973 | 949 | 53% | 2011-07-13 | Lost |
| 944 | 1093 | 30% | 2011-04-27 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1137 | 32% | 2011-01-19 | Won |
| 966 | 1014 | 43% | 2011-01-01 | Lost |
| 1093 | 1062 | 54% | 2010-05-16 | Won |
| 1079 | 840 | 80% | 2009-02-08 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1132 | 63% | 2007-01-26 | Lost |
| 943 | 1010 | 40% | 2006-06-06 | Won |
| 1002 | 1004 | 50% | 2004-11-20 | Lost |
| 862 | 968 | 35% | 2004-08-30 | Lost |
| 948 | 1160 | 23% | 2004-08-16 | Lost |
| 1066 | 986 | 61% | 2004-03-28 | Lost |
| 1161 | 978 | 74% | 2002-06-16 | Won |
| 829 | 847 | 47% | 2002-05-01 | Won |
| 1055 | 1098 | 44% | 2002-03-09 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1024 | 66% | 1998-09-22 | Won |
| 1051 | 1037 | 52% | 1998-03-20 | Lost |
| 881 | 1205 | 13% | 1994-03-04 | Won |
| 980 | 983 | 50% | 1991-04-13 | Tied |
| 1105 | 966 | 69% | | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1023.8 vs 1021.1 has a 50.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).